22 predictions of what 2022 holds for Australia, with Simon Kuestenmacher
Feb 16, 2022
A lot has already been written about trends, predictions and forecasts for 2022.
Yet today, I’m going to be chatting with leading demographer and futurist Simon Kuestenmacher about the demographic, social, and economic trends that will shape 2022.
This is the type of information property investors, business people, and entrepreneurs need to understand to make better-informed decisions. And, of course, I’ll be sharing my popular mindset message at the end.
Predictions For the Year 2022
The coronavirus pandemic was a great reminder of how difficult it is to make accurate forecasts, especially about the future.
But recently, demographer and futurist Simon Kuesetenmacher, the co-founder of The Demographics Group, was prepared to stick his neck out and make 22 predictions about what 2022 holds for Australia in his column in The New Daily. And I’m looking forward to discussing them today.
- Millennials continue on to family-sized houses.
Australia’s largest generation reaches the family formation stage of the lifecycle and continues to leave their hipster neighbourhoods in the capital cities, searching for family-sized homes.
- As the decentralization of the population continues, local governments face predictable challenges.
As growth in the regions continues, local councils must make enough land available to accommodate the increased demand for housing.
- Hybrid work will dominate.
Working from home is here to stay, but exclusively virtual working arrangements will remain the exception.
- House prices will continue to rise.
Demand for family-sized housing is guaranteed to be high due to the Millennials. Soon migrants will be returning to the market. Government has no interest whatsoever in pushing house prices down.
- The average Australian house will get bigger in 2022.
Lockdowns pulled functions from outside the home into the home. We entertain, eat, exercise, study, work at home more often. Some (not all) of these changes will stick, and require more space.
- As we are cocooning more, Bunnings, Barbecues Galore, Harvey Norman, and co will be doing well!
We spend less money on traveling overseas, save money by avoiding the daily commute, get away with owning fewer formal items of clothing, and have more money available to throw around. A fair bit of this disposable income will be used to make the family home more liveable.
- One size doesn’t fit all.
Customer segmentation will be trickier in 2022. Different levels of lockdown restrictions bred different habits across the country.
- The socio-economic divide widens.
The pandemic didn’t impact all of us in the same way. Highly skilled workers kept their jobs and many industries saw big profits while lower-skilled workers lost their jobs at high rates.
- Baby Boomers will act with a sense of urgency.
They feel cheated out of two healthy years of their retirement. They are keen to travel, spend time with the grandkids, and feel “it’s their time now”.
- The trend towards sliding into retirement continues.
In 2022 a higher share of workers in their 60s and early 70s will remain in the workforce in a part-time capacity. This means downsizing is pushed backward too.
- Gen X is taking over even more leadership positions.
As Baby Boomers leave the workforce it’s Gen X’s time to dominate company boards and C-level roles. Xer leaders introduce generous parental leave policies and continue to fight for equal pay.
- The healthcare sector continues to boom.
Australia remains a rich and aging country. No industry will grow as fast as healthcare.
- While Australia will recover economically in 2022, a near-universal skills shortage will hold back economic growth.
Hiring qualified staff will be challenging. The short-term solution will be for existing staff to work longer hours.
- More retail spending will take place online.
Expect more vacancies on your local main street. Struggling main streets are terrible for towns and neighborhoods. Smart local governments and business councils will find creative ways of repurposing empty shop fronts.
- Data released this week saw the fertility rate fell to an all-time low of 1.58 kids per woman in 2020.
The impact of COVID will only be seen in the data for the year 2021. This data will be published in 2022 and will show that Australians had even fewer kids during COVID.
- Women will return to work within a year of childbirth in high numbers.
This means demand for childcare will remain stable despite declining births.
- The world will praise Australia for its handling of COVID.
Only two measures will be looked at: deaths per million and the vaccination rate. People across the world will view our nation as a desirable location.
- Extreme weather events will be occurring more frequently, and we must prepare for this.
We can’t say whether 2022 will see such events, but we know that they are statistically more likely.
- The older generations join the young in demanding better digital services.
COVID taught many older people to use QR codes, download apps (turns out the COVIDSAFE app was good for something after all), and purchase things online. All industries and all levels of government must improve their digital offerings.
- The death of the wallet.
Digital cash, digital ID. You can get through 2022 just fine without ever carrying a wallet.
- Early 2022 will see the return of migration, albeit not yet at pre-pandemic levels.
International students will be first, arriving in time for the semester starting in March. This will help stabilise the inner-city rental market, help fill casual jobs in retail and hospitality, and generally boost the economy.
- 22. Most importantly, we will remain an optimistic and forward-looking people.
Links and Resources:
Simon Kuestenmacher - Director of Research at The Demographics Group
Join Michael Yardney and Simon Kuestenmacher at Wealth Retreat 2022 – register your interest here.
As our markets move forward why not get the team at Metropole to build you a personalised Strategic Property Plan – this will help both beginning and experienced investors.
Shownotes plus more here: 22 predictions of what 2022 holds for Australia, with Simon Kuestenmacher
Some of our favourite quotes from the show:
“The poorer workers actually suffered more, while many Australians are much wealthier at the end of the year than they were at the beginning of last year.” – Michael Yardney
“We always have been a very favoured country for people to come, to live, to work, and this is only going to work well in our favour.” – Michael Yardney
“I’ve found that one of the biggest things holding people back from success in all areas of their life is fear of failure.” – Michael Yardney
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